World War III
Welp. The worst-case scenario seems to be happening. Russia has sent forces into Ukraine to “preserve the peace” which is a lot like an arsonist hanging out in a house with cans of gasoline and a lighter. Things will only escalate from here. For weeks, the US has warned that Russia will find a pretext for invading Ukraine and they seem to have found it:
Basically what Putin is doing is saying that Russia recognizes these two regions in Ukraine as newly formed countries that are independent of Ukraine. He is sending in troops to help them stabilize the areas, which in Russian can be translated to rounding up dissidents and shipping them to Siberia. There has been no formal vote or decree — these places are just the easiest pickings for Russia to invade. For many years, separatist groups have been waging war with the Ukrainian government. Now, they have the backing of a nuclear power in Russia.
This will, of course, lead to reactions from other countries. The US went to war with Iraq in the 90s because they invaded Kuwait. And while Biden so far as rejected the notion of sending US troops to Ukraine, he may not have a choice. This is because of NATO, an alliance of American and European nations that holds an attack on one of them is an attack on all.
Repercussions of Russian aggression have already been swift and severe. Germany announced that would it would stop certification of a gas pipeline that runs directly from Russia in Germany. This will cost Russian energy companies billions of dollars. It may also increase the cost of natural gas throughout Europe. The UK has targeted Russian banks and assets. The US and other allied countries will announce their own actions later today.
This all leads to one question: what does Putin want?
To understand his motivations you have to understand where he came from. He’s a former KGB (the Soviet secret police) and grew up idolizing the strength of the Soviet Union. Putin has always felt (and said as much) that Ukraine should and IS part of Russia. He views their government as illegitimate. From his perspective, he is simply taking control and what is already theirs. You cannot invade a country that you already have. He also feels that a majority of people in the areas he has moved forces into WANT to be a part of Russia. There is quite a bit to debate on that last issue.
Putin has also been edging towards this for years. He’s supported chaos and sent troops into countries like Georgia, Moldova, and Crimea (in Ukraine). In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine, pointing to a referendum vote that showed a majority of support for independence from Ukraine. That vote, however, was illegitimate and polling shows that 90% of Crimeans want to remain part of Ukraine. Putin views NATO as a major threat to Russia ever becoming a world power again and he uses their outreach to countries like Ukraine and Georgia as a pretext to invade.
World Wars don’t start out that way. We don’t have to look too far back in history to see that. In fact, we need to go just 100 years (or less) to see how these kinds of conflicts can spiral out of control.
The United States and its allies are faced with a difficult decision. If they allow Putin to invade and begin to take over Ukraine, they will be ignoring a foreign enemy’s incursion into a state that aims to join NATO. The position, called “appeasement” is what led Hitler to gain more and more power. As Germany sent their forces into neighboring countries, European nations like France and the UK did not stop him. Instead, they signed treaties (which Hitler later broke). Putin’s ambition may not extend beyond former Soviet states (yet) but allowing an international bully to take over another democratic country is a bad look. Not to mention Putin having access to all the weaponry the US has given to Ukraine over the years.
However, should the US or Germany decide to send forces to balance out Russian troops, they would essentially be engaging in open war with Russia. This could lead to an escalation the likes of which we haven’t seen in 80 years. If NATO were to fight Russia, Russia could potentially involve China. And then it would really be on. The world would be at war and things could get ugly — fast.
The fine line between these two outcomes is where the US and our allies have been trying for the past few weeks. Sanctions against Russia have so far not worked as a deterrent. We’ll have to see what the US announces later today to really see how serious they are about punishing Russian aggression. If China retaliates against the US on behalf of Russia, we could see major impacts on our economy and inflation. Putin maintains power in part because of the wealthy oligarchs who support him within Russia’s borders. If they start to feel pain in their wallets, that might be enough for them to pressure Putin to back off. So far, it seems, he has the full support of Russians in his actions.
At the end of the day, there might not be anything we can do outside of war to stop him. If he has his mind set on restoring the once-great nation of Russia to one of superiority comparable (or greater) than the United States, blood will have to be shed for it. After all, let’s not forget how America got to be the cock of the walk in the first place. It wasn’t with flowers and hugs.
By sending troops into these two Ukrainian areas, Putin is hoping for something to happen. He WANTS there to be a violent reaction to his invasion. That’s part of the plan. If Russian forces are attacked, that gives him all the pretense he needs to invade Ukraine full scale. He will say he is merely defending his own people against an aggressive neighbor. Ukraine knows this and is probably calculating what they can do and what support they have from Europe and America.
Russia is not really concerned with what the international community thinks about their actions. In fact, they openly mock the UN and its total lack of power or authority. Here is a clip from Russian state TV poking fun at French President Macron:
Before the Olympics began, Putin held several meetings with Chinese officials. No one really knows what they discussed. There was a pretense about the Olympics but the timing of troops massing on Ukraine’s border cannot be ignored. They may have entered into an unpublicized treaty or at least some kind of understanding that they won’t interfere with each other’s plans. It is in both their interests for Allied Nations (especially the US) to be pulled into a quagmire that weakens them.
China has similar ambitions as Russia, namely, to become a world power along the lines of the United States. Previously, their tactics have been mostly economical, choosing to only threaten military engagement with smaller nations like Japan and Taiwan. But if Russia can pull the US into an actual war, their position might change. That would be very, very bad for us.
I’m not going to sit here and pretend to tell you there’s a good answer to all of this. The US is in no position to engage in another lengthy foreign war, especially when we don’t even have a treaty with Ukraine requiring us to do so. However, if Germany or France were to get involved, they might ask NATO to respond in kind. That’s when things could get sticky. After 9/11, when the US invaded Iraq and Afghanistan, we also asked NATO countries to send troops. They complied but in very small numbers. We could do the same. However, without strong backing from US military assets, the war for Ukraine would likely be a lost cause. So why even bother?
Sometimes in life, the only way to stop a bully is to fight them. That’s what we may end up having to do. Could we win? It depends on how far we’re willing to go. Both of our nations have access to nuclear arsenals. That would obviously be the last option on the table. But never discount Russia using a proxy nation to deliver a killing blow. If China and Russia decided to help North Korea speed up its weapons program, who knows what could happen after that.
I fear we are headed for another world war. Right now, it remains in everyone’s best interests to find a peaceful solution to this. Ukraine may have to cede Crimea and the two areas that Russia claims have declared independence. NATO may have to promise to not engage with former Soviet states about joining the alliance. But if we allow Putin to take over sovereign nations without a military response, what message are we sending to him? Who’s to say Belarus, Moldova, or Poland won’t be next. This is the question the Allies prior to WW2 faced. They chose appeasement. What will we do this time around?
That answer could be the end of everything.